The model went 67.3% (99/147) on the full card yesterday. Here's the tape.
๐ THE LEDGER
Every pick the model graded. Win or lose, it goes on the board.
| Window | Full Card | Batters | Pitchers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 67.3% (99/147) | 67.3% (76/113) | 67.6% (23/34) |
| This week | 69.7% (686/984) | 70.1% (532/759) | 68.4% (154/225) |
| This month | 70.1% (2449/3492) | 71.4% (1941/2718) | 65.6% (508/774) |
| This season | 69.9% (2807/4016) | 70.9% (2272/3206) | 66.0% (535/810) |
Batter markets (season): Hits 71.9% ยท Hits+Runs+RBI combo 72.6% ยท Runs 57.4% ยท Runs+RBI 63.3% ยท Total Bases 54.5% ยท Home Run 25.0% ยท RBI 44.4%
Pitcher markets (season): Strikeouts 70.1% ยท Walks 64.3% ยท Outs/Length 58.1%
๐๏ธ THE WRAP โ what we saw that the line didn't
๐ฏ Against the grain
Clay Holmes (New York Mets) to work deep into the game โ and did. The matchup screamed coin-flip to the public, but the model had it flagged as a calculated dart. It cashed.
๐ง The honest miss
Casey Mize (Detroit Tigers) was top of the board to clear his strikeout number and came up empty. We don't bury these โ the model's edge is built over a full season, not any single night.
โก The stack that paid
We leaned into a cluster of hitters drawing a soft pitching matchup โ and the group hit at 89% (19 bats). Adley Rutschman led the way, exactly the spot the model loves to attack.
Grades posted every morning. Today's plays drop as lineups lock โ watch for the Early / Mid / Late editions.