The model went 74.7% (148/198) on the full card yesterday. Here's the tape.
๐ THE LEDGER
Every pick the model graded. Win or lose, it goes on the board.
| Window | Full Card | Batters | Pitchers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 74.7% (148/198) | 72.0% (108/150) | 83.3% (40/48) |
| This week | 70.1% (738/1053) | 68.8% (570/828) | 74.7% (168/225) |
| This month | 74.1% (274/370) | 72.0% (213/296) | 82.4% (61/74) |
| This season | 70.2% (3265/4650) | 70.8% (2627/3713) | 68.1% (638/937) |
Batter markets (season): Hits 73.4% ยท Hits+Runs+RBI combo 72.3% ยท Runs 57.9% ยท Runs+RBI 63.6% ยท Total Bases 55.2% ยท Home Run 23.1% ยท RBI 50.0%
Pitcher markets (season): Strikeouts 72.4% ยท Walks 63.8% ยท Outs/Length 60.6%
๐๏ธ THE WRAP โ what we saw that the line didn't
๐ฏ Against the grain
Shea Langeliers (Athletics) to factor into the scoring (run or RBI) โ and did. The matchup screamed coin-flip to the public, but the model had it flagged as a fade signal. It cashed.
๐ง The honest miss
Alex Bregman (Chicago Cubs) was top of the board to record a hit, run, or RBI and came up empty. We don't bury these โ the model's edge is built over a full season, not any single night.
โก The stack that paid
We leaned into a cluster of hitters drawing a soft pitching matchup โ and the group hit at 83% (29 bats). Brent Rooker led the way, exactly the spot the model loves to attack.
Grades posted every morning. Today's plays drop as lineups lock โ watch for the Early / Mid / Late editions.