The model went 60.8% (101/166) on the full card yesterday. Here's the tape.
📊 THE LEDGER
Every pick the model graded. Win or lose, it goes on the board.
| Window | Full Card | Batters | Pitchers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 60.8% (101/166) | 57.5% (77/134) | 75.0% (24/32) |
| This week | 66.7% (737/1105) | 65.6% (583/889) | 71.3% (154/216) |
| This month | 68.5% (1011/1475) | 67.2% (796/1185) | 74.1% (215/290) |
| This season | 69.5% (4002/5755) | 69.8% (3210/4602) | 68.7% (792/1153) |
Batter markets (season): Hits 73.3% · Hits+Runs+RBI combo 71.0% · Runs 62.0% · Runs+RBI 62.8% · Total Bases 57.6% · Home Run 31.2% · RBI 54.5%
Pitcher markets (season): Strikeouts 72.6% · Walks 67.0% · Outs/Length 61.5%
🗞️ THE WRAP — what we saw that the line didn't
🎯 Against the grain
Jake McCarthy (Colorado Rockies) to factor into the scoring (run or RBI) — and did. The matchup screamed coin-flip to the public, but the model had it flagged as a fade signal. It cashed.
🧊 The honest miss
Chase Burns (Cincinnati Reds) was top of the board to clear his strikeout number and came up empty. We don't bury these — the model's edge is built over a full season, not any single night.
⚡ The matchup that didn't land
We leaned into a soft-matchup hitter cluster and it came up short — 46% (35 bats). Some days the spot is right and the results aren't. We log it and move on.
Grades posted every morning. Today's plays drop as lineups lock — watch for the Early / Mid / Late editions.