The model went 60.4% (110/182) on the full card yesterday. Here's the tape.
⭐ THE CALLED CARD — our published plays only
The route card grades thousands of reads a night. This is the record on the handful we actually called out. Held to a higher standard, on purpose.
| Window | Plays (parlay = all legs) | Individual legs |
|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 4-1 (80.0%) | 8-1 (88.9%) |
| This week | 25-10 (71.4%) | 46-16 (74.2%) |
| This month | 25-10 (71.4%) | 46-16 (74.2%) |
| This season | 187-110 (63.0%) | 375-132 (74.0%) |
Yesterday, play by play: - ✅ Parlay — Kevin Gausman Over 4.5 Hits (✓); Luis Arraez H+R+RBI (✓); Brice Turang H+R+RBI (✓) - ❌ Parlay — Cade Cavalli Over 4 K (✗); Kevin McGonigle H+R+RBI (✓) - ✅ Parlay — Zack Gelof H+R+RBI (✓); Brandon Marsh H+R+RBI (✓) - ✅ Anchor — Ernie Clement H+R+RBI (✓) - ✅ Anchor — Jordan Walker H+R+RBI (✓)
📊 THE LEDGER
Every pick the model graded. Win or lose, it goes on the board.
| Window | Full Card | Batters | Pitchers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 60.4% (110/182) | 58.6% (89/152) | 70.0% (21/30) |
| This week | 64.9% (681/1050) | 63.8% (549/861) | 69.8% (132/189) |
| This month | 64.9% (681/1050) | 63.8% (549/861) | 69.8% (132/189) |
| This season | 69.3% (6824/9840) | 69.2% (5427/7844) | 70.0% (1397/1996) |
Batter markets (season): Hits 71.3% · Hits+Runs+RBI combo 70.6% · Runs 61.7% · Runs+RBI 61.3% · Total Bases 47.5% · Home Run 32.3% · RBI 53.8%
Pitcher markets (season): Strikeouts 72.8% · Walks 72.7% · Outs/Length 63.2%
🗞️ THE WRAP — what we saw that the line didn't
🎯 Against the grain
Bryce Elder (Atlanta Braves) to work deep into the game — and did. The matchup screamed coin-flip to the public, but the model had it flagged as a calculated dart. It cashed.
🧊 The honest miss
Cade Cavalli (Washington Nationals) was top of the board to clear his strikeout number and came up empty. We don't bury these — the model's edge is built over a full season, not any single night.
⚡ The matchup that didn't land
We leaned into a soft-matchup hitter cluster and it came up short — 45% (33 bats). Some days the spot is right and the results aren't. We log it and move on.
Grades posted every morning. Today's plays drop as lineups lock — watch for the Early / Mid / Late editions.