NFL Picks Recap, Week 3 2026 (Backtest)

🧪 Backtest. Replayed with today's rules on point-in-time data (last pregame prices); this edition was not posted live. Not replayable for these weeks: the DraftKings line check and injury / market-move notes.

Our free picks went 75% (12 of 16) this week.

	This week	Season
✅ Free picks	12 of 16	39 of 53
🔒 Members props (incl. free)	32 of 49	90 of 141
🏈 Anytime TDs	5 of 6	17 of 20
🎲 Premium unders	5 of 5	11 of 15
🎲 High-confidence spread picks	3 of 5	12 of 16
🎲 Strong moneylines / spreads	3 of 3	4 of 4

🔥 Hits

Travis Kelce under 70 receiving yards (-245) — finished with 59 receiving yards 🎲
Oronde Gadsden II under 60 receiving yards (-335) — finished with 0 receiving yards 🎲
Dalton Kincaid under 80 receiving yards (-270) — finished with 38 receiving yards 🎲
Terrance Ferguson under 50 receiving yards (-108) — finished with 9 receiving yards 🎲
Isaiah Likely under 60 receiving yards (-300) — finished with 13 receiving yards 🎲
Brock Purdy 1+ passing TDs (-669) — finished with 4 passing TDs
Trey McBride 50+ receiving yards (-223) — finished with 75 receiving yards
Denzel Boston 25+ receiving yards (-300) — finished with 41 receiving yards
Bryce Young 1+ passing TDs (-376) — finished with 1 passing TD
Joe Burrow 1+ passing TDs (-488) — finished with 3 passing TDs
Juwan Johnson 2+ catches (-567) — finished with 8 catches
Kirk Cousins 1+ passing TDs (-300) — finished with 3 passing TDs
Bucky Irving 12+ carries (-317) — finished with 15 carries
Colston Loveland 2+ catches (-400) — finished with 4 catches
Kyle Monangai 7+ carries (-300) — finished with 10 carries
Terry McLaurin 25+ receiving yards (-245) — finished with 77 receiving yards
Jacory Croskey-Merritt 9+ carries (-257) — finished with 19 carries
Christian McCaffrey to score a TD (anytime) (-213) 🔒
Bijan Robinson over 76.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 194 rushing yards 🔒
Kaleb Johnson under 38.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 6 rushing yards 🔒
MarShawn Lloyd under 23.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 11 rushing yards 🔒
Derrick Henry to score a TD (anytime) (-186) 🔒
Javonte Williams to score a TD (anytime) (-133) 🔒
Tommy Tremble over 10.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 41 receiving yards 🔒
Dalton Schultz under 5.5 catches (-110) — finished with 3 catches 🔒
Kenneth Walker III to score a TD (anytime) (-170) 🔒
Justin Herbert under 227.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 226 passing yards 🔒
Josh Allen under 240.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 204 passing yards 🔒
RJ Harvey under 19.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 6 rushing yards 🔒
J.K. Dobbins under 49.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 49 rushing yards 🔒
Juwan Johnson over 34.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 53 receiving yards 🔒
Cade Otton under 3.5 catches (-110) — finished with 3 catches 🔒
Kenny Gainwell under 18.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with -4 rushing yards 🔒
Kyler Murray under 21.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 17 rushing yards 🔒
Chris Godwin Jr. under 35.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 25 receiving yards 🔒
Jahmyr Gibbs to score a TD (anytime) (-245) 🔒
Braelon Allen under 17.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 14 rushing yards 🔒
Jalen Hurts under 25.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 25 rushing yards 🔒
Cooper Kupp over 1.5 catches (-110) — finished with 4 catches 🔒
Jacory Croskey-Merritt under 37.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 36 rushing yards 🔒
Stefon Diggs under 34.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 33 receiving yards 🔒
Emanuel Wilson under 29.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 14 rushing yards 🔒

🚀 Above and beyond

Terry McLaurin: we said 25+, he doubled it with 77 receiving yards
Cooper Kupp: we said 1.5+, he cleared the 4+ stretch with 4 catches
Bijan Robinson: we said 76.5+, he cleared the 130+ stretch with 194 rushing yards
Tommy Tremble: we said 10.5+, he cleared the 25+ stretch with 41 receiving yards
Juwan Johnson: we said 34.5+, he cleared the 35+ stretch with 53 receiving yards

🔁 Repeat calls

✅ BUF: on our list 3 games running, 3 of 3 calls hit
➖ Brock Purdy: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 3 calls hit
✅ Bucky Irving: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 3 calls hit
❌ Carnell Tate: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 2 calls hit
✅ Christian McCaffrey: on our list 3 games running, 2 of 4 calls hit
➖ Colston Loveland: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 3 calls hit
✅ Dalton Kincaid: on our list 3 games running, 2 of 3 calls hit
✅ Dalton Schultz: on our list 3 games running, 1 of 3 calls hit
✅ Denzel Boston: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 2 calls hit
➖ Derrick Henry: on our list 3 games running, 4 of 5 calls hit
✅ Jahmyr Gibbs: on our list 3 games running, 4 of 5 calls hit
✅ Joe Burrow: on our list 2 games running, 3 of 3 calls hit
❌ Jonathan Taylor: on our list 3 games running, 2 of 3 calls hit
✅ Juwan Johnson: on our list 3 games running, 4 of 4 calls hit
✅ Kyle Monangai: on our list 2 games running, 1 of 2 calls hit
❌ Kyle Pitts: on our list 3 games running, 1 of 5 calls hit
✅ Oronde Gadsden II: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 2 calls hit
✅ Terry McLaurin: on our list 2 games running, 2 of 2 calls hit

😬 So close

8 picks lost by a hair:

Jalen Hurts (PHI) 1+ passing TDs · Free — needed 1, got 0: 1 passing TD short
Baker Mayfield (TB) under 215.5 passing yards · Members — needed 215 or fewer, got 217: 2 passing yards over
Cam Skattebo (NYG) under 58.5 rushing yards · Members — needed 58 or fewer, got 60: 2 rushing yards over
Jahan Dotson (ATL) over 1.5 catches · Members — needed 2, got 1: 1 catch short
Colston Loveland (CHI) over 31.5 receiving yards · Members — needed 32, got 31: 1 receiving yard short
Derrick Henry (BAL) over 91.5 rushing yards · Members — needed 92, got 89: 3 rushing yards short
MIA +11.5 · All-Access — final KC 24, MIA 10: missed the cover by 2.5
TEN +3.5 · All-Access — final TEN 7, NYG 12: missed the cover by 1.5

🏟️ Game picks (All-Access)

✅ ATL moneyline (+190) — final ATL 35, GB 14
✅ ATL +4.5 — final ATL 35, GB 14
✅ BUF -7 — final LAC 16, BUF 24
✅ ATL +6.5 — final ATL 35, GB 14
✅ IND +2.5 — final HOU 17, IND 19
❌ MIA +11.5 — final KC 24, MIA 10 · 😬 missed the cover by 2.5
❌ TEN +3.5 — final TEN 7, NYG 12 · 😬 missed the cover by 1.5
✅ ARI +8.5 — final ARI 30, SF 36

Every pick, wins and losses, at the price we posted. Full record: rrsalgo.com/nfl/record/