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☀️ Sunday Early Results (Backtest) — Week 3

🧪 Backtest. Replayed with today's rules on point-in-time data (last pregame prices); this edition was not posted live. Not replayable for these weeks: the DraftKings line check and injury / market-move notes.

Our free picks went 83% (5 of 6) in the Sunday Early window.

✅ Free picks

  • ✅ Joe Burrow (CIN) 1+ passing TDs (-488) — finished with 3 passing TDs
  • ✅ Denzel Boston (CLE) 25+ receiving yards (-300) — finished with 41 receiving yards
  • ✅ Bryce Young (CAR) 1+ passing TDs (-376) — finished with 1 passing TD
  • ❌ Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET) 40+ receiving yards (-525) — finished with 19 receiving yards
  • ✅ Terry McLaurin (WAS) 25+ receiving yards (-245) — finished with 77 receiving yards
  • ✅ Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) 9+ carries (-257) — finished with 19 carries

🔒 Members picks, revealed

11 of 17 for the members-only picks. EV plays and TDs: 2 of 3, -0.07 units (judged in units, not hit rate).

  • ✅ Jahmyr Gibbs (DET) to score a TD (anytime) (-245) — scored · +0.38u
  • ❌ Jonathan Taylor (IND) to score a TD (anytime) (-127) · -1.00u
  • ✅ Kenneth Walker III (KC) to score a TD (anytime) (-170) — scored · +0.55u
  • ✅ Braelon Allen (NYJ) under 17.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 14 rushing yards
  • ❌ Cam Skattebo (NYG) under 58.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 60 rushing yards · 😬 2 over
  • ❌ Carnell Tate (TEN) under 39.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 58 receiving yards
  • ✅ Cooper Kupp (SEA) over 1.5 catches (-110) — finished with 4 catches
  • ✅ Dalton Schultz (HOU) under 5.5 catches (-110) — finished with 3 catches
  • ✅ Emanuel Wilson (SEA) under 29.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 14 rushing yards
  • ✅ Jacory Croskey-Merritt (WAS) under 37.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 36 rushing yards
  • ✅ Josh Allen (BUF) under 240.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 204 passing yards
  • ✅ Justin Herbert (LAC) under 227.5 passing yards (-110) — finished with 226 passing yards
  • ❌ Keaton Mitchell (LAC) under 14.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 52 rushing yards
  • ❌ Quentin Johnston (LAC) under 35.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 40 receiving yards
  • ❌ Rachaad White (WAS) under 18.5 rushing yards (-110) — finished with 35 rushing yards
  • ✅ Stefon Diggs (WAS) under 34.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 33 receiving yards
  • ✅ Tommy Tremble (CAR) over 10.5 receiving yards (-110) — finished with 41 receiving yards

🎲 All-Access picks, revealed

6 of 8 for the All-Access-only picks.

  • ✅ Oronde Gadsden II (LAC) under 60 receiving yards (-335) — finished with 0 receiving yards · +0.28u
  • ✅ Isaiah Likely (NYG) under 60 receiving yards (-300) — finished with 13 receiving yards · +0.31u
  • ✅ Dalton Kincaid (BUF) under 80 receiving yards (-270) — finished with 38 receiving yards · +0.34u
  • ✅ Travis Kelce (KC) under 70 receiving yards (-245) — finished with 59 receiving yards · +0.38u
  • ✅ BUF -7 — final LAC 16, BUF 24
  • ✅ IND +2.5 — final HOU 17, IND 19
  • ❌ MIA +11.5 — final KC 24, MIA 10 · 😬 missed the cover by 2.5
  • ❌ TEN +3.5 — final TEN 7, NYG 12 · 😬 missed the cover by 1.5

😬 So close

3 picks lost by a hair:

  • Cam Skattebo (NYG) under 58.5 rushing yards · Members — needed 58 or fewer, got 60: 2 rushing yards over
  • MIA +11.5 · All-Access — final KC 24, MIA 10: missed the cover by 2.5
  • TEN +3.5 · All-Access — final TEN 7, NYG 12: missed the cover by 1.5

Graded the morning after at Kalshi's official settlement or the box score (props at the book's line) and the final score (game picks), at the price we posted. The full weekly recap with streaks and season records posts Tuesday. Full record